Newport, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS61 KILN 051712
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
112 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will stall out in the region into early Saturday,
providing periods of showers and storms to through that time.
Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail until some slightly
drier air finally returns to the area into early next week. But until
then, several rounds of showers and storms are expected from time-
to-time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southwesterly mid level flow becomes more westerly today. At the
surface, a weak front will stall out across the area. Weakening
band of showers which has pushed into our western counties will
continue to fall apart as it tries to move east across the area.

Residual shield of clouds, will act to to delay and limit instability
today. Eventually we destabilize late in the day, with MLCAPE values
of 1000-1200 J/KG developing into the west.

With weak effective shear and modest instby, expect storm
development to be very disorganized/cellular. Any severe threat looks
to be limited to gusty/damaging wind or small hail threat.

Increase in moisture leads to precipitable water values around 150
percent of normal, so we should observe efficient rain rates and
locally heavy rain.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s northwest to the middle 80s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
There are signals for a weak sfc wave/impulse to move into the Tri-
State area between about 02z-08z, which should provide /just/ enough
forcing to keep ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity going in this area well
past sunset. However, the overall coverage of activity should wane
toward daybreak Friday. But certainly at least some TSRA activity
should be maintained past midnight.

A mild and muggy night is on tap tonight as temps only dip into the
mid to upper 60s before rebounding into the upper 70s and lower 80s
on Friday afternoon.

More diurnally-driven ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity is expected on
Friday, although coverage during the afternoon may be a bit more
limited on Friday than will be the case today as the initial weak sfc
wave moves to the E through the morning hours. This being said,
another weak wave/impulse will approach from the SW toward sunset
and beyond, indicating that storminess on Friday may increase a bit
toward the evening and early nighttime before waning again toward
daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing across the area Friday
evening before weakening and becoming more scattered overnight into
Saturday morning. A lingering strong/severe storm is possible as the
remaining instability is used along and south of the Ohio River
area. Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes suggests lower
shower/thunderstorm chances throughout the first part of Saturday
before another shortwave moves in Saturday evening and into Sunday
morning. Current forecast rainfall chances may decrease for Saturday
in future forecasts as confidence increases in the lull in activity
behind the Friday night system.

After this potential lull, additional rounds of slow moving showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday night into early Sunday
before drier air works into the region. This system will drive out
some of the deeper moisture across the area. However, shower &
thunderstorm mentions do not entirely disappear from the forecast
because yet another trough enters the region into early next week.
This stronger trough provides an opportunity for better forcing and
wind-flow, but deeper moisture is lacking. Confidence is fairly high
that behind the larger trough Tuesday, a period of dry conditions
begins by Wednesday. This could likely last a couple of days,
depending on the return of moisture from the south.

Temperatures over the period are near to slightly below normal given
the lack of deep ridging and multiple rounds of rainfall. Despite
the multiple rounds, there isn`t a clear period where excessive
rainfall or severe weather are concerning. A few strong/severe
storms remain possible Friday night before the eventual weakening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak front to stall out east-west across the area with a weak surface
wave rippling thru tonight. An area of showers moving across the area
will result in showers with MVFR conditions at times. Some marginal
instability may result in embedded thunder along the leading edge of
these showers across the central Ohio TAF sites.

Additional showers and embedded thunder to develop late in the day
into this evening. With no clear signal for exact locations have
handled this threat with PROB30 for each site through the evening to
convey the expectation for at least some SHRA/TSRA potential.

There may be better coverage of SHRA/TSRA that affects the area after
02Z and have a tempo group for this period.

Ceilings in the VFR category may temporarily drop to MVFR in showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. As the weak wave
of low pressure moves into the area expect widespread MVFR ceilings
to develop after 06Z - with a period of IFR possible late tonight
into early Friday across the northern TAF sites. Ceilings will slowly
improve Friday morning with additional storms likely Friday
afternoon.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Friday. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are possible Friday night into Saturday. Some storms may
be possible early Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR